Irene Video Highlights

Check out this video on Youtube Highlighting Irene in Carteret County

Irene gone Power Back On

Power came on around 10 PM.

Earlier today we watched a parade of vehicles cross back and forth in and out of town. Thanks goodness Irene is gone!

Dodged??

Earlier today I spoke about how Beaufort has dodged a bullet. And largely that is true.But the fact that Irene Really reformed and we have winds approaching 50 knots at 6:30 pm is testament that many of our brothers and sisters in the county, the state, and the east coast are suffering this death by a thousand cuts. The extent of damage will appear in the coming days. Look at the imagery from 6:14pm today and see how Irene reaches from North Carolina to New York State.

Les Still from
WCTI12.com talked today about the storm fundamentally transforming from a hurricane to some other form of a hurricane. He used the term baroclinaly transformed storm. I know that is above my pay grade. Here is the WIKI version.



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Still Blowing 61 Knots at Cape Look Out

It is still gusting to 60 Knots, a few hours after the eye passed over.

Here is the 4 PM reading at Cape Lookout.

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Irene

We are on the backside of the storm. Its squealing! Check out my latest youtube of the storm here.

Photos
Here


Tides for Beaufort

Low tides roughly correspond to the predicted time of landfall.


Sat 27 Low 12:56 AM 0.4 6:36 AM Rise 4:51 AM 6
27 High 6:51 AM 3.3 7:40 PM Set 6:31 PM
27 Low 12:52 PM -0.1
27 High 7:23 PM 4.2

Early Lessons?

The lesson we can obtain from recent media coverage of Irene is the divergence of the accuracy of TRACK prediction as opposed to the accuracy of INTENSITY predictions.

The weather people all agree they can more and more accurately predict with certainty the track or path a storm will follow.

Almost as solidly these weather experts will admit that just as accurately as they can predict the track of storm, they equally fall short predicting the strength of a storm.

So the meteorological holly grail is prediction both the track, and intensity of a hurricane.




Hazel Type Epic??

Joe Bastardi predicted a couple of days ago on The Hannity Radio show that Irene would rival epic storms such as Hazel in 1954.

Not much to post at the moment other than traditional photos of people hauling their boats out, moving lawn furniture into safety, and icing down a cold beer or diet coke.
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Buckle your Seat Belts

Here is a link to Penn State Dept of Meteorology. This page has a tremendous number images, computer radar loops, model runs, etc to look at. Amazing imagery.

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Irene Movie of developing storm

Check out this movie from NASA of the development of Irene.

And look here at the “European Models” considered to be highly accurate.

Be sure to click in the upper right hand of the european model page the animate button.

IRENE WEDNESDAY



It looks likely we will get some affects from Irene, therefore one should prepare for her.


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Irene 3 PM Tuesday

More flights this afternoon by the G-IV called “Gonzo” and one of two P-3 Turbo props. The top image is the flight path for the turbo-prop and the bottom image is the flight path for the G-IV.

Gonzo, the G-IV is expected to be airborne for 8 hrs and 24 minutes.

HERE is the 5 PM










Screen Shot 2011-08-23 at 2.59.44 PMScreen Shot 2011-08-23 at 2.59.13 PM

Irene 5 AM Tuesday Update

Screen Shot 2011-08-23 at 5.03.47 AM


This is the flight track at 5 AM Tuesday of the NOAA G-IV jet flying the “Synoptic Surveillance Mission” referenced below. NOAA’s 5AM discussion is here but when the data from the flight this morning comes in, we should have a clearer picture of what we should expect in Carteret County.

Beginning to make decisions about protecting property in any storm, those with smaller boats under 40 feet should think about securing one of the 100 spots for Hurricane Haul Out at The Boathouse at Front Street Village. The fee for this service is $500, reasonable in the market. To secure a spot contact
The Boathouse at (252) 838-1524.

Tides for Gallants Channel Beaufort North Carolina.

F 26 Low 12:19 AM 0.6 6:35 AM Rise 3:43 AM 13
26 High 6:08 AM 2.8 7:42 PM Set 5:52 PM
26 Low 12:05 PM 0.1
26 High 6:46 PM 3.8

Sa 27 Low 1:04 AM 0.4 6:36 AM Rise 4:51 AM 6
27 High 7:01 AM 3.1 7:40 PM Set 6:31 PM
27 Low 1:00 PM -0.1
27 High 7:33 PM 4.0

Su 28 Low 1:48 AM 0.1 6:37 AM Rise 6:00 AM 2
28 High 7:51 AM 3.4 7:39 PM Set 7:08 PM
28 Low 1:52 PM -0.2
28 High 8:20 PM 4.1


Immediate Updates check out Twitter at
@samsellars

Irene

Hurricane Irene is being watched closely tonight, and a NOAA Gulfstream G-IV is scheduled to depart at 5:30 Zulu time 8/23/2011 and drop multiple dropsondes around the perimeter of the storm. This mission will provide data that should provide us in Carteret County valuable information about the storm and its possible impact.

Below is the plotted flight path of the mission which is departing MacDill air force base near Tampa, Florida.

Updates to be posted Tuesday morning, after data from the flight is crunched to give us a tighter forecast.

Sam Sellars

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Pirate Invasion in Beaufort

August 12 & 13, 2011

Come visit Beaufort and join all the invading and marauding Pirates!

BeaufortPirateInvasion.com