Early Lessons?

The lesson we can obtain from recent media coverage of Irene is the divergence of the accuracy of TRACK prediction as opposed to the accuracy of INTENSITY predictions.

The weather people all agree they can more and more accurately predict with certainty the track or path a storm will follow.

Almost as solidly these weather experts will admit that just as accurately as they can predict the track of storm, they equally fall short predicting the strength of a storm.

So the meteorological holly grail is prediction both the track, and intensity of a hurricane.